"Moirai: Decentralization Platform To Predict Market"

Hello there is good news for crypto digital currencyes traders. We all know that predicting the market is very difficult. although it has been getting information from certain sources, but sometimes we ourselves still feel hesitant to trust the information will be true.

through this article I will provide information relating to "market predictions", and the news comes from Moirai.

What is Moirai?

What VISION, MISSION, and what benefits will Moirai give?

here I will give a review about Moirai:

Introduction

A prediction market is a financial or information market, where participants trade in contracts whose results depend on future unknown events1. It is based on an efficient market hypothesis. Market prices will be the best predictor of this event, in a really efficient prediction market, and there is no other combination of information that can be used or applied to improve market forecasts. However, it is unlikely the prediction market is really efficient.

In essence, the prediction market allows participants to bet bets on possible occurrences of events 2, such as events related to elections, sports, weather, entertainment, etc. Individuals who participate in the market, by buying stocks or 'betting' on certain specific outcomes, are rewarded on the basis of the accuracy of their predictions.

Prediction markets are significantly useful for estimating the expectation of the market regarding certain events. These markets have their limitations; however, for predicting the future, they may be beneficial as a supplement to other primitive mechanisms such as politically appointed panels of experts, opinion of surveys, holding committee meetings, and hiring consultants. In the private sector, there is an increasing interest in the prediction markets, growing at a rapid pace. Economists, analysts and other stakeholders are using the prediction markets’ results in subsequent analysis. Analysts have linked the time series of expectations elicited in the predication markets with time series of other variables. For instance, the co-movement between risk of war and the oil price (as a causal relationship) have been illustrated previously, where war led to a $10 per barrel increase in oil prices. The forecasting or prediction related to political outcomes have further enhanced the scope and power of the prediction markets.

The idea of the predication markets was revived, after earlier efforts, by the spread of the internet, which dramatically reduced the entry barriers for the creation and participation in these markets. The success of IEM in predicting presidential elections inspired the dozens of other prediction markets. Platforms like Hollywood Stock Exchange and radeSports.com, in the 90s and early 2000s, showed the power and potential of predication markets to the world, which are:

Types of Prediction Markets: The payoffs, in a prediction market, are tied to future events’ outcomes. The design regarding the link of payoff to the future event can elicit the expectation of the market about the range of different parameters. Prediction markets can be classified with respect to main types of contracts, which include winner-take-all, index and spread.

In the ‘winner-take-all’ contract, the contract costs some amount and pays off, if and only of a specific event occurs. The price on a winner-take-all market represents the expectation of the market about the probability that an event will occur. The amount that an ‘index’ contract pays varies in a continuous way, which is based on a number that falls or rises. The price for the index contract shows the average/mean value, which the market assigns to the outcome. Trades differentiate themselves in the ‘spread’ betting by bidding on the cut-off, which determines whether an event occurs. In this form of betting, size of the spread can adjust, while the price of the bet is fixed. Following table presents an example of each type of contract.

Applications of the Prediction Market

Over the years, there are a growing number of web-based event markets, which are often run by companies providing a range of gambling and trading services. Some prominent examples include Betfair.com and bet365.com. Prediction markets have been applied in various domains successfully. Mostly, prediction markets were used for the medium-term and short-term forecasts. However, these markets have a huge potential in long-term forecasting and evaluation. 

Following are some of the previous fields of application for medium- and short-term forecasts:

Field of Application	Name of Market	Focus
Political stock markets	Iowa Electronic Markets	Elections including US presidential and non-US elections (France, Germany, Austria, Korea)
	UBC election stock market	Federal and provincial elections in Canada
	GEM 90, 91, 93, 94, 98	Federal and regional elections in Germany
	Wahlstreet, Wahlboerse	State elections in Germany
	The Political Stock Market	Federal and provincial elections in Germany
	TE03, NP02	National assembly elections in Austria
	PAM94	European Parliament and municipal councils in Netherlands
	Moirai It	Political and Financial events
Sports prediction markets	World Sports Exchange	American Football, basketball, and hockey
	News Futures	Sports and political elections
	Trade Sports	Worldwide sports prediction market
	Betfair	Football, horse racing, tennis, etc.
	Bundesligaborse	Football
Other applications	Idea Markets	Prediction of success of new product ideas
	Economic Derivatives	International trade balance, growth in payrolls, GDP, retail sales.
	CMXX	Success of movies, video games, and music CDs in Germany
	Hollywood Stock Exchange	Box office performance of movies

Moirai’s Objectives: Moirai aims to become a disruptive force in various global markets systematically. These markets include finance, insurance, sports betting, political event prediction, and information. Moirai’s prediction markets will provide unique incentivisation opportunities for both global and local economies. Its platform is based on a decentralised network. 

Following are Moirai’s main objectives:

1. To create new economic opportunities and more efficient avenues for crowdsourcing and aggregating information through customised information searching. The power of search in inclusive and decentralised.
2. To build an efficient and effective forecasting tool by bridging real world events to the blockchain via prediction markets and oracles.
3. To establish a global open prediction market platform and become the standardfor predictive assets.

Moirai Ecosystem: The ecosystem of Moirai is based on a global decentralised network, which is centred around the prediction markets. The users in the ecosystem are able to explore and participate in events created by operators and provides. It builds a long-term cooperative operating model, providing an opportunity to compete and innovate for compensation to the providers. On the other hand, the users have the ability to earn profits from participating in the various events related to prediction. 

The following table defines the participants within the ecosystem and describes their roles:

Participants	Description	Roles
Providers	Based on the Moirai’s open source implementation, ‘providers’ develop the prediction market client apps. For creating user experience based on the best practices, providers can also customise the app.	1. They provide access to the network to the users through the Moirai application. 2. The release app’s branded version in accordance with the reference implementation provided by Moirai. 3. Through the promotion of the app, the provider brings traffic into the Moirai’s network.
Operators	Operators are responsible for creating events and resolving their real-world outcome. The operator determines the event participation fee, where syndication fee is paid to the provider. In the Moirai’s network, any individual, organisation or entity can become an operator.	1. Operators create/develop prediction events for the users. 2. They provide the necessary market marker reserves and collaterals reserves needed for running events. 3. For the events, the operator acts a centralised reputable oracle.
Moirai	It is the official organisation that creates the MOI token, technology, and the model. It is focused on establishing open source cryptographic technologies, which enables the functioning/operation of the decentralised network.	1. Creation and development of the MOI token. 2. Execution of the token event to finance operation and development of the decentralised network. 3. Creating incentives for the providers to connect with the network, adopt MOI, and introduce their customer base to the prediction markets on Moirai. 4. Define the model for the execution of prediction markets in a decentralised and secure manner over the Moirai network. 5. Developing and releasing Moirai app as an open source reference implementation. 6. Developing technology for operating the network such as Ethereum. 7. Focusing on the regulatory aspects of the ecosystem 8. Promoting the Moirai network through marketing to bootstrap activity and forming partnerships.

Token Trading

The financial working structure of Moirai is based on the use of a cryptographic token system which is also named as Moirai Token or the MOI. Likewise other cryptographic currency; MOI is also designed as fractionally divisible, interchangeable, and transferable.

Usability and Objectives: of MOI The inclusion of MOI in the new prediction business of Moirai is purposefully made to perform most of the financial activities within the business. The dependency of Moirai on MOI has enhanced its integrity due to being the driving force of the economic elements of the business. The activities fall under the umbrella of MOI are listed below depicting the focal functions and methods of MOI in the business venture. 

• The MOI will be used by providers and users in the process of predicting the outcomes of events and similarly, the financial profits of the successful predictions will be collected by the users in MOI as well.
• The MOI will be purchased initially by users while using traditional money transfer methods with the Moirai or through existing cryptographic currency like Bitcoins, Ethereum and Credit Cards
• The purchase of MOI by the users will be required in such a way that the MOI will be the only mode of currency through which users will be able to participate in the prediction business by both the makers of the market and the creators of the events.
• MOI will be used between different providers for promoting of their apps within the Moirai platform for the purpose of payment of syndication fee.
• Operators and providers will be buying and using the MOI for generating the events as well as participating in the event while spending and earning in MOI.
• It is planned in the business strategy for Moirai that the users and event operators will be required and rather recommended to keep enough reserve of MOI in order to respond to any contingencies occurred during the prediction events.

This flexibility will make MOI resistive to risk involved in the liquidity i.e. when the investors are sometimes unable to get the tokens or the currency to speculate in an event of prediction or the case of vice-versa for the users while trying to cash the token. Similarly, the factor of volatility or instability will also be covered by MOI due to its common usage modality in which it can be used for all sort of financial transactions involved under the umbrella of Moirai platform of a prediction market.

Prediction Application

The development and publicity of the client for the sake of emergence at Moirai platform will be made with the help of functionality of Moirai digital application which will be available both for desktop and mobile users. It will be available for download as an open source application which will implement the model related to the user while allowing access over Ethereum to Moirai contracts along with the opportunity to access the listings, content, and events oriented data to be acquired from the cloud storage facilities based on decentralisation.

Operational Mechanism of Moirai Application 

The desktop version of Moirai application will be compatible to run on the following platforms including:

• Windows 
• Macintosh 
• Linux

Similarly, the Moirai application will also be available for user of mobiles and other gadgets having the following operating system in their devices:

• iOS
• Android

Mobile vs Desktop Usage of Application

Information About Token Sales

• Limited supply of only:  666,000,000 MOI
• ICO Hard Cap:  $5,000,000 USD
• Due to limited supply, MOI is expected to grow at least double in value after its ICO

PRE-ICO Information:

PRE-ICO: 28 October 2017 to 10 November 2017

Coin price: 1 MOI = $0.005 USD

Amount of MOI released: 100,000,000 MOI

Hard cap: 500,000 USD

ICO Information:

ICO: 30 November 2017 until 30 December 2017

Coin price: 1 MOI = $0.009 USD

Amount of MOI released: 500,000,000 MOI

Coins devoted to the team: 66,000,000 MOI

Soft cap: 1,000,000 USD

Hard cap: 4,500,000 USD

For More Informations:

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